盈選報告 | 把握大盤成長股的投資窗口期,關注券商、水電及核電板塊
市場策略
▍天風證券宋雪濤表示,當前正處於中美流動性寬鬆的窗口期。國內宏觀環境具備三個特徵:第一,經濟溫和修復且斜率放緩。第二,通脹擔憂見頂回落。第三,結構性緊信用和寬貨幣的政策環境。國內流動性在“七一”之前可能維持當前較鬆水平、金融風險相對真空,美聯儲忽視短期的通脹衝高、在勞動力市場接近充分就業前不會立刻轉向,因此近期對於中美而言都是大盤成長的投資價值提升的窗口期。
▍中金公司發掘出美股盈利的8大特徵,總結爲“修復超預期,投資略修復,同環比均尚未見頂”。在這一背景下,該行對美股市場依然維持積極看法,儘管估值處於相對高位且難免會因通脹壓力和政策變數出現短期波動,但尚未到悲觀時。
熱點機會
▍券商板塊:
中國銀河稱,券商估值處於歷史較低位置,業績向好,盈利與估值有望迎來收斂。公募基金行業大發展時代,基金銷售規模有望進一步擴容,代銷金融產品對券商經紀業務貢獻度提升,財富管理成效逐步顯現,抗週期能力提升。未來證券行業集中度提升,將形成大型綜合券商以及特色化、精品化券商的差異化競爭格局,推薦綜合服務能力強勁、龍頭地位穩固的中信證券。
▍水電及核電行業:
中信證券發研報稱,煤電企業採購現貨煤發電並採用市場化電價上網已經接近其盈虧平衡線,火電搶增量市場電的意願明顯受抑制,預計電力供需矛盾短期難以緩解,5月份開始的電荒後續或加劇。廣東電力現貨市場價格開始明顯突破標杆電價給出明確指引信號,即只有高電價才能保障迎峯度夏期間電力供應穩定性。成本穩定且邊際成本較低的水電及核電成爲電力供需緊張的受益者,推薦中廣核電力。
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