野村:下调全球今年智能手机销量增长预测至4.4% 料内地销量升2.2%
野村发表研究报告指,将全球今明两年智能手机销量增长分别降2%及1.1%,各至13.38亿台及13.87亿台,以反映需求、供应及成本上升带来的挑战,该行最新的预测反映全球今年智能手机销量销量将按年升4.4%,增速低于原先预期的6%。
该行亦将中国今明两年智能手机销量预测各降6.7%及4.9%,料销量将为3.32亿台及3.48亿台,意味今年销量仅升2.2%(原先料升7.5%)。另外印度疫情较差,令该行将印度今年智能手机销量预测降至1.31亿台,意味将按年跌12.5%。
野村认为负面因素将在今年次季带来影响,而势头最少持续至第三季初,现时估计今年第四季智能手机需求或会复苏,不过随着零件成本提升,估计今年下半年新的安卓机款零售价格亦会进一步向上,或会为第四季估算带来下行风险。
该行认为内地智能手机市场自农历年后需求转弱,3月份更录按年下跌,该行认为一方面是由于需求较弱,高端智能手机晶片短缺情况或致供求失衡,而低端手机在原材料成本上升的情况下受理,影响到5G渗透至低端市场并令5G手机需求增长减慢。
野村指,4G晶片亦面对供应短缺及价格上升问题,加上印度疫情自4月起转差,均为智能手机出货带来更多下行,特别是在印度接触面较大的品牌。
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