《大行報告》中信証券料美團(03690.HK)面臨監管及社保等問題影響可控 維持「買入」評級
中信証券發表報告表示，預測美團(03690.HK)今年首季核心指標為外賣日均訂單量按年增長112%、變現率14.4%，相關業務經調整營運毛利率為4.5%，按年上升5.2個百分點；料美團首季到店、酒旅業務收入按年增長104%、相關業務經調整毛利率為38%，按年上升16個百分點；該行預計美團今年首季新業務經調整營運虧損為85.9億元人民幣，按季虧損加大主因社區團購業務投入期虧損隨單量規模提升而擴大。
該行估預計美團今年首季總體經調整營運虧損56.3億元人民幣，預計公司財報呈現核心業務延續強勁表現+社區團購虧損階段性加大的總體表現，該行認為內地反壟斷審查、社保推進等問題影響可控，維持持續看好觀點及「買入」評級，及目標價414.4元。
中信証券指，根據草根調研匯總，今年首季重點跟蹤的內地7家頭部社區團購平台的交易規模約為430億人民幣，整體日均件單量已超過5,600萬；其中預計首季美團優選平台GMV約120億人民幣，日均件數超1,850萬單，交易規模和市佔率方面繼續領跑行業；同一梯隊的拼多多(PDD.US)旗下多多買菜緊隨其後，競爭層面並未拉開太大差距，區域格局繼續分化。該行指是競爭雖造成短期資本重投入，但平台積累的規模優勢和經營槓桿正在逐步兌現，未來幾個季度平台整體履約成本的邊際改善值得期待。該行預計美團優選首季業務營運毛利率為負30%，料相關虧損額約60億元人民幣。
該行指，近期美團和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)旗下餓了麼均將原本針對商戶的一攬子收費模式進行了佣金和配送費分離，即將原本約20%的商戶抽佣率拆分成為技術服務費+履約服務費，技術服務費的佣金比例為5.8%至6%，保底金額1.04元人民幣(20元人幣以下訂單)。履約服務費按照不同距離、價格和時段進行階梯式計費。平台費率更趨透明化，長看利好配送效率提升。直觀來看，根據該行對單均20至150元人幣不等的訂單按照精細化計費方式進行比較，該行認為新佣金模式對外賣整體變現率影響並不大。
中信証券認為，推行新政策對原本商家的計費方式進行更透明化的處理，一方面明確了美團作為技術驅動的互聯網公司，在平台上交易按比率向商戶收取固定的技術服務費；同時履約服務費更加清晰地呈現了騎手成本，將配送的選擇權交給商家，並幫助騎手多勞多得。從訂單趨勢上判斷，新的佣金政策或鼓勵外賣商戶縮小配送半徑，3公里內的外賣變得更加集中將有助平台整體的配送效率更加優化。
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