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《大行報告》高盛:內地平抑商品價格短期料利淡 籲趁調整吸納紫金(02899.HK)及宏橋(01378.HK)
阿思達克 05-25 15:19
高盛發表研究報告指,據內地政府網站,國務院上周指將確保商品供應及價格穩定,制止不合理漲價及防止傳導予消費價格,維持穩定經濟表現。

報告料根本改變商品緊張供需關係的政策措施有限,然而,該行視近期政府對商品價格的注意為整體下游板塊未來盈利能力惡化的一個指標,最終對上游定價設限。

高盛認為,上游漲價很快傳導至客戶,但在下游需求增長疲弱的環境下,製造業仍面對供應過剩及競爭,利潤率料收縮。該行料商品現貨價潛在壓抑核心製造業板塊(包括汽車、家電及建築機械)毛利率至近歷史低位,意味扁鋼及工業金屬(銅及鋁)短期價格潛在受限或面臨調整。

縱然如此,報告稱,對商品多年上行周期的看法不變,基本供求關係展望在中期仍支持商品價格強勁。對有工廠金屬敞口的高質素股份,其潛在短期調整屬入市機遇,如寶鋼(600019.SH)、紫金礦業(02899.HK)及中國宏橋(01378.HK)。

高盛預期紫金屆2025年經常性純利達479億元人民幣,由今年料166億元人民幣大幅增加,主因產量增加及商品價格上升。考慮近期可能出現調整,未來數年強勁增長憧憬,風險回報維持吸引,重申紫金屬少數公司可同時受惠於產量增加及商品價格上升。維持予H股「買入」評級及列入確信買入名單,目標價18元。

此外,報告指宏橋是純鋁材生產商,料受惠鋁價上升,今年純利料升至175億元人民幣,明年進一步升至189億元人民幣。考慮公司將三分之一產能由山東轉移至水力發電的雲南廠房,料公司有效降低平均單位碳排放33%,亦成為同業之間採用水力發電的先行者。考慮近期潛在調整,風險回報維持吸引,維持「買入」評級,目標價15元。

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