《大行報告》中金:恆指季檢結果對碧桂園服務等正面影響 更多新經濟公司獲納入
恆生指數公司上周五(21日)收市後宣佈截季度檢討結果,恆指將加入信義光能(00968.HK)、比亞迪股份(01211.HK)及碧桂園服務(06098.HK),成份股數目將由55隻增加至58隻。所有變動將於2021年6月7日(星期一)起生效。中金發表報告表示,相關指數變動與該行此前預覽的結果存在部份差異,主要原因是在於盡被納入公司都在該行根據量化標準篩選的長名單裡,但最終篩選的納入短名單無據可循,部份是根據恆生指數調整委員會的主觀選擇,因此存在加大的預測難度。
該行指,據當前市場估算匯總,追蹤恆生指數的ETF資金規模約221億美元、追蹤國指及恆生科技指數的ETF資金規模各約49億美元和5億美元,結果上述成份股權重的變化,該行測算了其潛在被動資金流向,進一步結果個股於過去三個月日均成交額,便可以測算被動資金變化可能帶來的影響。
就恆指方面,該行料被動資金流入所需時間最多的碧桂園服務(06098.HK)、比亞迪(01211.HK)、信義光能(00968.HK)、美團(03690.HK)及阿里巴巴(09988.HK),預計需要2.5至0.5天不等;所需交易被動資金流出中,預計友邦(01299.HK)、新地(00016.HK)及匯控(00005.HK)分別需要1.8、0.8及0.7天。
中金指,恆指今次調整成份股由55隻小幅增加至58隻,可能是避免一次性的衝擊過大,但未來擴容趨勢已經顯現。從行業代表性提升,參照恆指公司的對行業分類,即7個行業組,發現地產建築、其他和非必需及必需性消費板(工業、能源業、原材料業和綜合企業)的覆蓋度此次均有所提升,覆蓋度分別增加4個百分點、2.7個百分點和2個百分點,各至40.5%、32.6%及35.3%。
綜合來看,在上述系統優化後,恆指和國指的新經濟板塊佔比均有所提升。具體來看,恆指和國指的新經濟板塊佔比分別從調整前的40.2%和55.1%,提升至44.3%和58%,特別是可選消費板塊,其權重分別從15.6%和18.6%,大幅提升至21.4%和25.4%。
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