3個月蒸發2000億!海底撈為何慘遭市場拋棄?
牛年開市以後,海底撈慘遭市場拋棄。股價從歷史最高價85.8港元直瀉至近期最低的40.6港元,累計跌幅高達50%,市值蒸發超過2000億港元。
那麼,海底撈為何會遭遇如此暴跌呢?

1、暴跌的兩大因素
一個重要的因素就是,前期的港股抱團股在2月開始瓦解。
從去年底開始,A股、港股市場熱情都聚焦在抱團股、消費股、科技股身上時,海底撈就首當其衝地成為了南下資金的新寵,股價及估值一度直線飆升。但到了2月中旬起,抱團股、消費股及科技股輪番“崩盤”下行,海底撈的股價由此更是坐上了過山車。
另一個因素,則是去年業績表現欠佳。
今年3月,海底撈發佈業績顯示,2020年全年,海底撈實現收入286億元,同比增長7.8%;全年淨利潤3.09億元,同比下降86.8%。而淨利減少的原因則是受疫情影響導致門店客流量減少,及匯率波動出現淨匯兑損失。
此外,截止2020年末,海底撈經營餐廳總數為1298家,同比大幅增長近70%。全年餐廳服務顧客超2.5億人,同比增長僅2.5%。

同時,海底撈2020年新開餐廳的翻枱率僅為2.8,較2019年的4.1下降了超過30%。
而在摩根士丹利在今年5月發表的研究報吿中透露,海底撈餐廳4月的整體翻枱率小於3,較3月環比下跌,僅為2019年同期水平的約70%。高盛更早於3月發表的報吿也稱,翻枱恢復速度緩慢,短期內可能對海底撈的收益和估值構成風險。
2、火鍋生意難做了?
過去的一年對於餐飲業來説是艱難的一年。受疫情影響,2020年我國餐飲行業收入為3.95萬億元,同比下降16.6%。

而據中國飯店協會和NCBD(餐寶典)的數據顯示,2019年中國火鍋市場的總收入規模達到了9600億元,2020年該數字預計已回落至2018年的水平,大約8800億元。

大環境的持續低潮,無論是火鍋界的“巨無霸”,還是業界新潮兒,也都難以倖免。除了海底撈外,對比呷哺呷哺來看,同樣也是遭遇了滑鐵盧。
2020年呷哺呷哺的營收從2019年的60.3億元下降至54.55億元,增速達到了負值;全年淨利潤約1.31億元,同比鋭減67.1%。
在店鋪擴張方面,2020全年其開了91家呷哺呷哺餐廳和38家湊湊餐廳。截至到2020年底,呷哺呷哺已經擁有及經營1061家呷哺呷哺餐廳和140家湊湊餐廳。
總得來看,兩家火鍋巨頭都急於靠開店來挽救疫情影響下的業績。
3、尾聲
餐飲消費萎靡之下,海底撈還面對着同行業的激烈競爭。
火鍋紅海,誰不想分一杯羹?一茬一茬的新秀在崛起,像小龍坎、大龍燚、賢和莊、八合裏……無論是從口味體驗上還是網紅概念上,海底撈都在面臨着被瓜分大眾對吃火鍋的需求。
曾經在網紅這個詞還沒氾濫的歲月裏,海底撈是餐飲網紅界的開山鼻祖,而其好到“過分”式的服務體驗,幾乎成為了本世紀10年代的都市傳説。
而這個傳説是否會得到延續,還要看海底撈自己了。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.