《大行报告》摩通下调蒙牛(02319.HK)目标价至53.5元 评级「增持」
摩根大通发表报告表示,中国原奶成本於今年首季按年升12%,4月份更录得按年升18.7%,高於市场预期,故需重新调整对奶类行业之预期,并计入商品与其他成本增长影响、市场领导者的定价能力、各品牌下调推广开支、通胀压力增加因素後,相该行相信成本上涨将对蒙牛(02319.HK)股价构成压力。
该行指,蒙牛乳业维持对全年指引的目标,预期销售增长快於预期,将抵销对毛利受压的影响,目标价由54元稍降至53.5元,此相当於预测市盈率26倍及动态市盈率1.4倍,维持「增持」评级。
摩通表示按敏感性分析,假设原奶成本每上升5%,将会导致蒙牛毛利率下跌130个基点、令毛利下滑3.4%,料蒙牛每提升产品均价1.3%可抵销原奶成本上升5%的影响。
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