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《大行報告》瑞銀一舉降中鋁(02600.HK)及江銅(00358.HK)評級至「沽售」 調整原材料股目標價
阿思達克 05-14 13:06
瑞銀發表研究報告,基本材料板塊本年至今累升逾30%後,其風險回報已變得較不吸引。近期正面催化劑,如中國以外強勁需求、價格復甦,以及內地「碳中和」政策下生產削減,都已經充分反映。該行稱,未看到有下一正面催化劑可進一步推高估值。

因此,該行稱,對商品價格有最高直接敞口的股份更趨審慎,將中鋁(02600.HK)及江銅(00358.HK)投資評級由「買入」一舉降至「沽售」。考慮盈利增長乏力,將神華(01088.HK)評級級由「買入」降至「中性」。該行首選屬有良好產量增長的企業如紫金礦業(02899.HK)及估值與基本面有落差的企業,如中國宏橋(01378.HK)及鞍鋼(00347.HK)。

報告稱,由於中國以外地區原材料價格普遍高於中國境內,環球投資者應該已留意到中國以外正在進行疫情後補充庫存。中國減碳將限制額外產能,但料應逐步推展,以避免過分推高商品價格,致影響下游製造業盈利能力。在這兩大催化劑浮面後,該行料板塊強勁表現難以持續。該行礦業團隊料今年屬周期頂峰而不是超級周期的開始。

瑞銀表示,內地基本面穩定,但流動性不確定性持續;信貸增長放緩料限制商品投機炒作及相關行業估值擴張。考慮首季業績,該行上調板塊大多數公司今年盈測,並調整相關投資評級及目標價,詳見另表。瑞銀首選紫金、宏橋及鞍鋼。

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