《大行報告》瑞銀降神華(01088.HK)評級至「中性」 目標價維持17.5元
瑞銀發表研究報告指,料中短期內對煤的依賴仍會持續,主要由於預期能源行業混合過渡至可再生能源仍需要一段時間,加上近日數據反映華北煤炭庫存回落至低於長期平均水平,反映供需關係較緊張,並受安全事故及環保檢查等因素阻礙,亦將進一步為未來煤價提供支持,將今年全年秦皇島港5000K煤價預測上調至每噸700元人民幣,意味今年餘下時間平均價格約690元人民幣水平。
瑞銀指出,神華(01088.HK)有超過80%業務敞口來自合約銷售,預期從煤價上升中受惠最少。對比兗煤(01171.HK)及陝西煤業每噸平均售價預期可提升逾90元人民幣,瑞銀估計神華只可提價每噸少於80元人民幣。
瑞銀將神華今明兩年盈利預測上調3%及1%,至475億及473億元人民幣,以反映煤價上升因素,但認為股價上行空間有限,評級由「買入」降至「中性」,維持目標價17.5元。
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