惠譽：螞蟻集團事件表明中國政府對互聯網貸款風險的高度關注
惠譽評級認為，中國監管機構要求螞蟻集團將旗下小額貸款業務與其支付平台支付寶斷開連接，此舉表明了中國政府對緩解網絡小額貸款(網絡小貸)行業對金融系統和社會穩定性所造成風險的重視，同時亦表明政府著力矯正第三方支付市場上的反競爭行為。
該行指出近年來網絡小貸行業迅速擴張，其帶來的隱患已引起監管機構的密切關注，惠譽預計這將導致該行業的增速放緩。從對信用狀況的角度來看，網絡小貸行業若能保持更加可持續的增速，應當有利於行業的長期發展及資產質量的提升。由於中國經濟持續增長及個人消費不斷提高將持續拉動網絡小貸需求，惠譽預期，未來幾年內網絡小貸業務的增速仍將高於銀行貸款。然而惠譽認為，政府最近採取的行動凸顯出，短期內網絡小貸公司仍將持續面臨較高的監管風險。
惠譽預期，支付服務與小額貸款業務斷開連接後，螞蟻集團通過旗下支付寶平台進行交叉銷售的競爭優勢將被削弱，消費者在支付平台或網絡小貸公司方面將享有更多選擇，加上近期其他的監管舉措，螞蟻集團在短期內的營收和利潤增速或將受到影響。
不過該行認為螞蟻集團已在網絡小貸領域建立了品牌地位及用戶基礎，並積累了龐大的數據庫來支持其運用大數據和人工智能技術的授信系統。惠譽預計，螞蟻集團仍將是網絡小貸行業重要的服務提供者，並將獲益於網絡小貸規模的持續擴大。螞蟻集團亦已成立一家其持股50%的消費金融公司，並於2020年9月獲得中國銀行保險監督管理委員會頒發的牌照。通過該消費金融公司，螞蟻集團能夠在全國範圍內開展小額消費貸款業務，且槓桿率最高可至10倍，相比之下由地方政府發放的小貸業務牌照則受到較多限制。
螞蟻集團增長前景因受監管影響而有所放緩，或為其他符合監管新規的網絡小貸公司創造機會，但是監管機構將對網絡小貸行業可能在其他方面引發的風險保持警惕，尤其是與個人及小微企業客戶有關、並可能滋生社會穩定問題的風險將受到特別關注。監管風險攀升或令網絡小貸公司降低其風險偏好，這應有利於金融系統穩定。監管環境將持續快速演變，監管機構在鼓勵金融創新發揮積極作用的同時，亦會注重防範與互聯網消費信貸增長相伴而生的風險。
惠譽預期，對螞蟻集團造成影響的監管措施對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)現金生成能力的直接影響較為有限。螞蟻集團是阿里巴巴持股33%的關聯公司，但從未向包括阿里巴巴在內的股東派發過股息。阿里巴巴在中國網購市場和雲計算服務領域的領先地位、其核心商業業務產生較大的自由現金流、充裕的淨現金頭寸及保守的資本結構仍將支持其整體信用狀況。(el/u) ~
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