标普料本港今年楼价升0%至5% 零售租金优惠或「缩水」 办公室板块料跑输
评级机构标普全球评级发表报告,指香港今年开始走出疫情阴霾,保持韧性的楼价料可再升5%。商场人流改善料有利业主,惟办公室板块料落後大市。
该行信贷分析师Edward Chan称,办公室落後大市部分由於居家工作安排带来的改变,办公室业主在未来一至两年料向新租客及续租租客提供更佳条件。供应亦是一问题,所有地区办公室占用率及续租租金持续承压。中环空置率较2018年低位升逾三倍。
报告指未来12至18个月零售业主在续租时料仍有需要降租,在入境旅游尚未重启时捕捉本地低端消费需求。不过,租金优惠或较去年「缩水」,主因疫情放缓下零售销售局部复苏,及本港正推广疫苗接种。
该行料本港今年楼价升0%至5%,主因需求强劲,土地及房屋供应短缺,以及持续低息环境。而且本港失业率或已见顶,本港首季实际GDP按年转升7.8%属强劲。过去二十年,本港楼价在失业率见顶时通常已见底。这将支持发展商物业销售利润。在积压需求下今年住宅交投料按年上升,支持发展商项目去化率。首季交投已按年升78%。在结构性供应短缺下,未来两至三年楼价料保持韧性。
标普信贷分析师Aeon Liang表示,所覆盖发展商信贷状况大致稳定,受强劲资产负债表、稳固市场定位,以及楼市保持韧性所支持。而持续人口净流出带来的需求负面影响或动摇该行看法。此外,有较大办公室业务占比,特别是非核心区的办公室业主将面对持续租金压力。
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