《大行報告》美銀證券:現時銅庫存僅可滿足國際需求逾三周 可支持銅價
美銀證券近日發表全球金屬行業報告表示,銅價近期抽升,相信行業基本面可支撐其上行空間,指目前國際銅市場供應緊張,以噸計算的庫存目前處於十五年前的水平,此味著庫存僅能滿足國際需求3.3周,因為全球經濟才剛開始重新開放。
該行估計國際銅市場在今明兩年庫存下滑,會呈逆差情況。該行估計紅色金屬價格有會上升至每噸1.3萬美元,共估計銅市場至2023年及2024年將重新平衡。該行認為按行業基本面,可支持銅價。
美銀證券料全球今年銅生產量2,457萬噸(按年升5.1%)、今年銅消費量2,476萬噸(按年升6%),即短缺18.6萬噸;該行料全球2022年銅短缺36.9萬噸,估計至2023年銅行業才會呈過剩25.2萬噸。
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