《大行报告》摩通:是时候再审视中石油(00857.HK) 料进口天然气业务可改善
摩根大通近日发表报告表示,相信投资者是时候再审视中石油(00857.HK),指中石油管理层於分析员电话会议进一步澄清今年首季度天然气、管道业务情况,确认该行认为中石油旗下管道资产的损失影响并非市场原预期般坏。该行相信中石油早前股价亦反应正面,反映了投资者对公司天然气利润业务改善的信心不断增强。
该行指,重申对中石油「增持」评级及目标价3.6元,此按综合方式作估值。
摩通指,中石油经过市场对其估值的调整,料中石油目前企业价值仅为1.3万亿人民币,对比宁德时代(300750.SZ)企业价值为8,500亿人民币,而中石油於石油周期的底部即2020年仍录净利润190亿人民币(对比宁德时代净利润60亿人民币)。
该行预计,假设国际油价每桶仅60美元,中石油盈利至2025年将增至900亿人民币以上)(料宁德时代其时盈利190亿人民币)。收益改善的很大一部分,料来自天然气进口损失的减少,在2019年天然气进口损失产生经营亏损307亿元人民币,但该行预计中石油至2021年及2022年该分项可达收支平衡。
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