《大行报告》中金:阿里巴巴(09988.HK)持续投入新兴业务 优化供给侧优势
中金发表报告,指近期组织了阿里巴巴(09988.HK)非交易性路演。管理层表示,会持续投入新兴业务。该行对阿里的盈利预测不变,维持「跑赢行业」评级及目标价311美元或304港元,均对应31倍2023财年非通用准则市盈率。
阿里认为,网红带货无法成为常态化的促销手段,未来将重点打造店播模式,以成为商家常态化的运营手段。对於主播端,公司将利用平台数据优势,为中腰部主播匹配合适的商家,同时帮助商家精准触达核心客户人群,预计淘宝直播网站成交总金额(GMV)将保持较高增速。另外,阿里希望通过淘宝特价版与淘宝主站差异化的购物体验吸引高价格敏感度人群。
报告提到,阿里近期成立了社区团购事业群,随着业务进入快速扩展的阶段,将针对不同地区做供应链整合。管理层认为团长端的微信运营不是社区团购的核心护城河,因此不会盲目跟风大额补贴团长和用户,而会更加重视仓配履约能力的建设。对於供应链相对薄弱的地区,或将进一步自建供应链。而今年不会对社区团购设投入上限。
阿里云方面,管理层指希望多让利给B端客户,短期内或不会选择快速提升利润率。阿里云早期客户集中在电商、金融、互联网等领域,目前通过政府云及在新零售行业的积累,形成了深度的壁垒。其先发优势和较高的迁移成本具有高度的竞争优势。未来对云业务将进一步深入多地布局及深化客户价值。
对於中小商家扶持政策,阿里指,手淘改版进一步鼓励商家通过逛逛、订阅等功能运营私域流量,目前观察到商家运营效率明显提升。
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