植耀輝: 港股五窮月跌多升少
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股在4月最後一個交易日急跌近600點，29,000點又再度失守，而且跌勢相當全面，成份股中只得5隻股份上升，跌幅則以友邦(01299.HK)居首，大跌4.44%，並又再次失守紅底股。事實上，單一隻友邦，便拖低恆指達130點。另外新經濟股亦捱沽，美團(03690.HK)下跌3.62%，阿里巴巴(09988.HK)亦跌2.77%。較令人意外的是內銀股，建行(00939.HK)及工行(01398.HK)便分別下跌3.45%及3.62%。
雖然上周五(4月30日)出現急跌，但恆指四月份仍上升346點或1.2%。不過踏入五窮月，港股形勢似乎相當嚴峻。企業季績未見有太大驚喜，A股雖然偶見造好，但始終未能擺脫3,450點阻力，並持續於該水平反覆上落。另外外圍如印度疫情失控，令全球經濟復甦路又變得更不明朗等，令港股暫難有條件向上突破。
即使以歷史數據分析，恆指近年5月表現亦不見得好。以2010年至2020年為例，恆指只有兩年錄得升幅，即使稍作推前，惟由2000年至今，錄得升幅的次數亦只得六次，反映5月確是跌市機率較高。所以預期恆指將繼續於28,500至29,500點上落，惟須注意一旦失守下方支持，則近期之橫行悶局將出現突破，有機會出現較大調整。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，持有友邦股份)
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內地假期因素 港股仍將缺乏方向
耀才研究部稱，美股上周五(4月30日)出現回吐，企業績業表現參差，加上科技股沽壓較大，納指跌幅較大，下跌119點或0.85%。至於道指及標普500指數則分別下跌0.54%及0.72%。不過若以4月份表現而言，則標普升幅達5%，道指及納指亦分別上升2.7%及5.4%。
至於港股方面，大市走勢仍見反覆，雖然周四(4月29日)大市出現突破，但周五卻又「打回原型」之餘，跌幅亦見顯著。由於內地假期因素，港股通周四才恢復，相信港股仍將缺乏方向，待「北水」回歸後走勢始會轉趨明朗。另不少藍籌已陸續公布季績，在缺乏消息面下，相信交投亦會轉淡。
從技術分析角度，恆指4月份呈長方型走勢，上方阻力為29,500點，下方支持則為28,500點。上周四雖一度見向上突破，惟周五又再重回該區間，反映大市仍未能擺脫上落市格局。但值得留意，港股走勢似有所轉弱，故下方支持不容有失，一旦失守意味整個形態將轉壞，後市或有機會出現較深度調整。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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