二胎概念持續拉昇走高 愛嬰室(603214.SH)等多股漲停
格隆匯4月27日丨二胎概念股持續拉昇,愛嬰室、朗姿股份等多股漲停,金髮拉比、安奈兒、貝因美等跟漲。國家統計局此前稱第七次全國人口普查結果初步打算在4月上旬召開發佈會公佈,經濟學家任澤平今日在微博稱,“人口普查結果再度推遲,看來不容樂觀,建議放開生育、放開三胎政策不宜再推遲”。此前,央行稱應全面放開和鼓勵生育。中信證券稱,預計第七次人口普查結果將在2021年4月公佈,生育政策或將漸進式調整。預計將放開三孩生育,而生育鼓勵政策將在未來十年循序漸進地加碼。短期來看,預計放開三孩生育可使新出生人口提升約10%。中性假設下,進一步考慮堆積效應,預計提升效果可到14%左右。假設其他條件不變,則預計該效果足以使總和生育率維持在1.5-1.8之間。中長期來看,要將生育率維持在適度區間,仍需生育鼓勵政策的支持。

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