《大行報告》大摩:美團(03690.HK)遭調查市場不意外 或可除不明朗 重申「增持」評級
摩根士丹利發表報告表示,就內地市場監管總局對美團(03690.HK)涉嫌壟斷行為立案調查,美團指將積極配合反壟斷法調查,該行相信美團被立案調查的事件不會令市場感到意外,隨著美團早前已進行股本集資計劃後,相信潛在面臨罰款的影響相對可控。
該行認為,鑑於阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)被調查的先例,預計市監局今次對美團的調查時間將較短,而調查結果將消除市場對美團主要懸而未決的不明朗因素,維持對美團「增持」投資評級及目標價420元。
大摩表示,對美團遭當局調查並不會令市場感驚訝,因為美團被認為是繼阿里巴巴之後反壟斷風險最高的內地平台公司,而商家獨佔性一直是美團和阿里旗下餓了麼之間的主要戰場之一。參考內地對阿里巴巴的反壟斷罰款,佔2019年阿里巴巴國內銷售額的4%,該行估計美團的相關罰款為46億元人民幣或7億美元,指潛在罰款將相當於美團集資後約4%現金,或目前市值的0.3%。
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