華泰料美團(03690.HK)今年外賣業務每單利潤可倍升 強勁執行力推動新業務
華泰金控近日表報告,指美團(03690.HK)在全國迅速布局社區電商業務,擴大了潛在可觸達用戶群和可觸達市場規模,該行認為美團具有強大的執行能力和遍布全國的代理商網絡,這有助於社區電商業務的擴張。同時,公司需要增強基礎設施能力,如物流和供應鏈能力,以在激烈的競爭中超越同業。
鑒於美團對社區電商業務的投資,該行對美團2021年經調整的淨利潤預測由159億人民幣,下修至虧損89億人民幣,並對美團2020年經調整的淨利潤預測由290億下修至109億人民幣‧。公司在2021至2023年收入年複合增長率為49%的預測下,該行預計經調整的淨利潤年複合增長率為117.9%。該行預計每份外賣訂單的息稅前利潤將從2020年的0.3元人民幣增加至2021年的0.7元人民幣(按年增幅1.33倍)。
華泰金控目維持對美團「買入」評級,下調目標價0.8%至333.9元,料公司2021年外賣業務每單盈利有望增長,指美團正在不斷豐富和提高平台外賣供應的種類和質量。預計隨著今年第二季增值稅帶來的不利影響逐漸消退,收入的強勁增長和外賣騎手人工成本的改善有望提高每單盈利。
該行指,美團通過進軍社區電商業務為用戶提供更豐富的核心服務,這尤其有助於提高用戶參與度。該行預計美團新業務和其他業務的收入在2021年至2023年期間實現複合增長率76.4%;美團優選2021年總交易額(GTV)料1,134億元人民幣、料相關虧損或達244億人民幣。
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