《大行报告》摩通料中国平安(02318.HK)首季纯利按年跌6% 估寿险业务新业务价值升5%
中国平安将於明日(22日)公布今年首季业绩,据摩根大通本周一(19日)发表报告,估计中国平安今年首季归属於母公司股东的营运利润录348亿人民币按年下滑3%、料平安首季归属於母公司股东的净利润244亿人民币按年下滑6%。
该行料中国平安今年首季业绩数字将较温和有三大原因,首先是预测公司旗下非寿险业务(料首季综合比率98%)和银行业务贡献相对较弱。第二,按沪综指首季按季回报率表现,料投资收益相对温和。第三计入与内地房地产商华夏幸福(600340.SH)相关减值损失54亿元人民币(相对於债务敞口360亿元人民币)。
摩根大通估计中国平安旗下寿险业务呈复苏,料其今年首季度寿险新业务价值为165亿人民币将按年增长5%,预计首年保费收入的强劲增长(今年首三个月按年增长15%),但将部分被产品利润率下降所抵销。随着新业务价值的增长,总体营运税後溢利增长动力应逐步恢复,该行预计中国平安2021财年及2022财年归属於母公司股东的营运利润增长各为1%及20%。摩通予平安「增持」评级,目标价130元。
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