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《大行报告》瑞银首予绿城管理控股(09979.HK)「买入」评级 目标价5.1元
阿思达克 04-21 09:44
瑞银发表的研究报告,首予绿城管理控股(09979.HK)「买入」评级,目标价5.1元,该行指出对公司有正面看法,认为在「三道红线」新规加上中央土地供应等,开发商会在轻资产、逆周期的项目管理模式下继续增长,相信投资者忽略了渗透能力的潜力,同时亦过份担心以项目为基础的收入,该行估计到2030年项目管理收入将为1,000亿元人民币(下同),2020-30年的年复合增长将为13%,预期公司到2025年市场份额将升至30%。

该行比对了地产子行业的各种业务模式,并分析开发商及政府在聘用项目管理人时的诱因,认为2019年在已发展经济体的项目管理渗透率为20-30%,而中国仅4%左右,估计受惠渗透率提升,项目管理收入於2020-30年的年复合增长将为13%。

该行相信公司可维持市场领导地位,市场份额将由2019年的22%升至2025年的30%,主要因为现时在管面积已锁定约四年的收入,而商业项目质素较高,相对邻近住宅定价可有40%的溢价,加上公司具品牌优势,同时有丰富经验及承办商和供应商网络,并有参与政府项目,估计2020-22年商业及政府项目收入的年复合增长将为30%及44%,而作为「现金牛」,估计公司派息比率可维持在65%的高位。(el/a) ~

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