植耀輝: 熱炒五一概念股 淺談呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，近期投資者已開始炒作「五一」概念，不少旅遊相關以至內需板塊均見炒作。不過呷哺呷哺(00520.HK)周一(19日)卻一度重挫21%，事緣其旗下湊湊餐飲CEO張振緯離職，有大行亦因此下調其目標價，引發投資者擔憂集團前景。以往一旦有高管離職，投資者對公司信心難免會有所動搖，何況今次離職的是一向被視為擁有高執行力之張振緯，所以股價出現反應亦正常；不過他離職似乎是與個人有其他業務發展有關，加上有大行亦似集團或已有人選安排，所以某程度上影響通常僅屬短暫，但以今次股價大跌之程度，則確實有點誇張。
至於是否與高盛下調目標價有關，則筆者亦有再作跟進。其實高盛本身頗看好呷哺呷哺前景，於去年12月才上調其目標價，不過當時看好之主因，就是預期湊湊餐飲將成為呷哺呷哺強勁增長點。事實上，湊湊餐飲去年佔呷哺呷哺總收入達31%，管理層原先亦預期2021年將開設70家新店，但首季湊湊餐飲只新增3間分店，要達成全年目標似乎有相當難度，高盛亦因此將新店數目有所下調，只是仍難解釋當日為何股價大跌。所以未來數個交易日之走勢相當關鍵。執筆之時(4月20日)其股價已見反彈，初步可視為市場或已消化高管離職之影響。
只是不論是呷哺呷哺抑或湊湊，未來發展仍相當具挑戰。去年全國餐飲收入3.9萬億元人民幣，同比下跌16.6%，主要受疫情影響，不少龍頭餐飲公司亦趁機擴張市場份額，當中便包括呷哺呷哺及海底撈(06862.HK)。不過呷哺呷哺現時在全國只得一家中央廚房，在供應鏈上不算完善，亦限制了其擴張步伐；相比之下海底撈憑姊妹公司的關係(由頤海(01579.HK)提供火鍋底料，蜀海負責中央廚房，蜀韻東方則負責裝修工程)，業務擴張迅速之餘亦能得到配合，發展上似乎亦可看高一線，只是估值高昂令投資者卻步，而且正如上文提到，餐飲市場競爭相當激烈，所以即使炒作「五一」因素亦只宜小注矣!
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)
*****************
疫情反覆再度拖累環球股市表現
耀才研究部稱，隔晚(20日)外圍股市走弱，市場繼續憂慮全球疫情反覆，印度等新興國家疫情惡化，全球經濟復甦步伐受到拖累，美股三大指數全線下跌。港股ADR全線下跌，ADR港股比例指數收報28744點，較上日跌391點；「黑期」今早(21日)亦跌逾350點，相信恆指早段將會跟隨外圍股市低走，或再度跌穿10天線並下試20天線之支持。另外，港股近來多間大市值股份進行配股活動，安踏(02020.HK)主席丁世忠之家族基金以每股131.48港元的價格配售8,800萬股舊股，配股價為昨晚銷售文件所顯示介乎131.28至133.88元之接近下限，投資者宜先留意股價今日能否跌穿配售價。
恆指於過去兩個交易日均未能成功突破50天線，由此外圍市況不配合，指數今日很大可能再回試10天及20天線之支持。4月份開局以來，一直最關鍵的支持位為100天線，該平均移動線已上移至28,350點水平左近，相信只要恆指未有正式跌穿此關，目前對後市之看法仍不宜過分悲觀。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
