《大行报告》中金:上海车展各车企新品发布频繁 料可带动行业情绪回暖
中金发表报告表示,据中汽协数据,今年3月中国新能源汽车总体销量为22.6万辆,按年增长2.58倍,按月上涨106%。其中乘用车、客车、货车销量分别达21.2万辆、7,300辆、6,500辆,按年增长2.72倍、1.51倍、1.09倍,按月上涨99.8%、224.1%、396.6%。内地今年首季度新能源车整体销量达51万辆,按年增长300.6%,同期汽车整体按年为45%,体现节後新能源车品类相对高增长弹性。
渗透率方面,整体新能源车渗透率达8.9%,创历史新高,其中纯电动车的渗透率为7.5%,插电混动的渗透率为1.4%。3月内地新能源汽车销量超过预期,体现节後需求快速恢复。分析原因,该行认为主要驱动力仍是供给端优质车型推动了客户端需求释放,包括五菱Mini EV、特斯拉国产车型等,後续更多智能电动车型上市,也将推动新能源渗透率持续提升
中金指,内地新能源乘用车格局稳定,上通五菱、特斯拉、比亚迪(01211.HK)分列月销前三。纯电动乘用车销量排名,上汽通用五菱继续位列第一,月销量4.27万台,占比24%,之後依次为特斯拉(3.55万辆,占比20%)、比亚迪(1.63万辆,9%)、长城汽车(02333.HK)(1.3万辆,占比8%);插电混动乘用车销量方面,比亚迪领先,月销量7,600辆,销量占比21%,之後的上汽(600104.SH)乘用车与理想汽车(LI.US)销量分别为6,900辆、4,900辆,销量占比分别为19%与14%。
就近期上海车展各公司新品发布频繁,该行料可带动行业情绪回暖。中期看,中金认为新能源汽车今年将呈现先抑後扬的「U型」走势,步入第三、四季度,更多智能表现较强的新车陆续量产,叠加新能源汽车行业在年底的翘尾效应,基本面向上是确立的。投资标的上,建议关注优质车型拉动需求释放的蔚来汽车(NIO.US)、理想汽车,以及产业链中受益全球新能源汽车渗透率提升的三花智控(002050.SZ)、拓普集团 (601689.SH)。
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