《大行報告》高盛料濠賭股短期波動 降今年賭收預測 全線調整目標價
高盛發表報告表示,在過去兩至三個月中,該行一直建議投資者在「重新開放」的主題上收集澳門博彩股,而澳門政府最近幾周陸逐放寬了政策,如從3月3日起取消對進入賭場的核酸測試等,濠賭股股價亦累升20%,估值相當預測2022年企業價值對EBITDA由10倍升至11.8倍,而市場對於濠賭股EBITDA的修訂相對穩定。
該行指,雖然對澳門博彩股保持建設性看法,料未來12個月有進一步上漲空間,但該行估計濠賭股短期會呈波動,因料如美高梅中國(02282.HK)及銀河娛樂(00027.HK)或因人民幣匯價走弱及一次性因素(獎勵支出)令首季業績或遜預期,而香港通關較原預期為長,亦潛在令市場同業下調對澳門博彩行業的預測。
該行指濠賭股呈調整將提供吸納機會,包括澳博控股(00880.HK)、銀河娛樂、金沙中國(01928.HK)及新濠博亞(MLCO.US)。
高盛表示,為反映貴賓廳復蘇較原預期疲弱及香港通關較原預期為長,決定下調對澳門今年博彩收入預測至較2019年水平低43%(此前預測為較2019年水平低28%),並估計澳門今年貴賓廳及中場賭收各下跌54%及35%,該行料澳門2022年賭收達350億美元,略低於2019年361億美元水平。
高盛亦略為調整對濠賭股目標價,將金沙中國目標價由41.4元降至41.2元,維持「買入」評級;上調銀娛目標價由80.3元升至80.5元,維持「買入」評級;該行微降對澳博控股目標價由12.9元降至12.8元,維持「買入」(列入「確信買入」名單)評級。
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