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《大行報告》麥格理升渣打(02888.HK)及匯控(00005.HK)目標價 惟對銀行股仍相對審慎
阿思達克 04-13 12:08
麥格理發表研究報告指,在宏觀展望改善及派息限制放寬下,國際銀行股獲估值重評。不過,該行對國際銀行股維持相對審慎看法,料2021年不會出現市場所憧憬的V形反彈,該行預期國際銀行股面對貸款增長疲弱、淨息差續低迷、高於均值的信貸開支、仍高企的經營開支及股本回報率(ROE)低於資金成本。而銀行股主要分野在於資本管理,較大程度解釋麥格理為何偏好渣打集團(02888.HK)多於匯豐控股(00005.HK)。麥格理予渣打「跑贏大市」評級,目標價由55元升至60元;另予匯控「跑輸大市」評級,目標價由33元升至37元。

報告稱,國際銀行股面對的逆風放緩,但仍有多項制肘。信貸正常化進展緩慢,而資本管理仍面對不確定性。銀行股普通股權資本充足率強勁,麥格理憧憬資本回報的限制將會解除。按其今年每股分派預測,意味匯控分派比率60%,渣打則25%。麥格理同時估計渣打會於今年下半年回購5億美元股份。

麥格理料渣打今年首季經調整稅前溢利按年升29%,匯控復甦相對溫和,料升15%。由於淨息差收窄,收入下跌料成定局,但料信貸成本正常化足以抵銷有餘。強勁財富管理及市場收入料成一大亮點。該行料國際銀行股普通股權資本充足率可高於內部目標區間上限,但新的資本管理措施仍未可行。

報告解釋,渣打正走出完美風暴。估值便宜的銀行股並不罕有,但渣打傾向增長市場,較少重組活動及有傾向執行資本管理,為麥格理所欣賞。相較匯控,報告稱,在對普通股權資本充足率影響較小下,渣打資本管理可提供較大的槓桿。即使中期ROE展望相若,但以市帳率計,渣打較匯控估值折讓達30%。

麥格理進一步稱,匯控有區內銀行間較強的資產負債表,料在恢復派息下找到支持。不過,報告對匯控維持審慎看法,麥格理預測意味匯控恢復派息僅達疫情前約一半水平;重組料持續至明年,回購料不獲考慮;此外,現正進行的重組帶來的好處料多年後才反映。

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