《大行报告》国泰君安料内地今年流动性环境按年有所收紧 但仍将相对宽松
国泰君安发表报告表示,人行昨公布今年M2按年增长9.4%增速差於预期,按月下跌0.7个百分点,M1按年增速按月下降0.3个百分点至7.1%,指M2与M1的「剪刀差」按月收窄0.4个百分点至2.3%。总体而言,该行认为内地3月M2按月增速下降,显示人行的货币政策整体稳健。
该行称,今年在预期中国经济继续恢复的背景下,为了控制经济风险,预计中国的流动性环境相对2020年整体将有所收紧,M2按年增速将与名义国内生产总值增速基本匹配。
国泰君安表示,於预期美联储继续维持零利率不变、全球经济受新冠疫情影响仍存在下行压力的情况下,为了稳定经济增长、降低新冠疫情的负面影响、控制经济风险、支持小微企业和民营企业融资,该行预计今年人行货币政策将稳健且灵活精准、合理适度,并且中国的流动性状况仍将相对宽松。
该行认为内地银行业的盈利增速将一定程度上恢复,且中国银行业的资产质量仍可控,维持内银行业「跑赢大市」投资评级,行业首选股为招商银行(03968.HK),对其评级「买入」,目标价为82.89元。(wl/k)
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