《大行报告》瑞信:投资者忧美团(03690.HK)收取佣金及订独家合约面临监管风险
瑞信发表报告指,投资者普遍担心美团(03690.HK)多於腾讯(00700.HK),因为美团有向商户抽成及订立独家合约等,难免会受到监管压力,不过与阿里巴巴(09988.HK)比较,公司食物外送业务的利润相对较薄,所以投资者担心潜潜在罚款对公司影响将会更大,同时美团於社区团购方面未来数年将继续投资。
该行认为有别於电商平台的抽成,美团的抽成亦包括骑手,所以不认为公司有收取「不公平地高」的佣金,不过过往公司曾与商户签独家协议,或属风险之一,但公司的骑手在下行周期时是内地就业重要一环,对社会有重要贡献。总体而言该行相信大型互联网龙头将有更多风险,但有别於阿里的巨额罚款,监管机构或会采取不同方向,例如是约谈、推出指引等,同时互联网龙头亦要自我约束,向公众作出承诺等。
至於腾讯,瑞信指市场主场忧虑主要包括微信屏蔽部分竞争对手的连结或惹反垄断忧虑,同时公司在游戏领域具领导地位,在微信小程序的生态系统方面亦鲜有竞争。
就阿里巴巴因垄断被罚後,瑞信指投资者担心整改後公司收入及利润将受影响,不过该行相信对公司收入影响有限,因为来自新商户服务的收入可抵销相关影响,而每年投资50亿至100亿元人民币(下同)的影响市场亦已反映。
该行认为,阿里巴巴难免要放弃部分的盈利机遇,但同时亦会提供新服务及技术以抵销相关影响,考虑到监管机构要求平台避免向商户收取「不公平地高」的佣金,该行相信平台将聚焦於提供更多增值服务及工具,估计有助商户提升投资回报率,同时亦助留客,总括而言该行料抽成不会显着下跌。(el/w) ~
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