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富瑞:料內銀今年貸款增長將放緩 首選建行(0939.HK)農行(1288.HK)
格隆匯 04-13 14:59

富瑞發表研究報吿指,3月份的數據證實了該行對社會融資規模(TSF)增速放緩的看法,但人行將會維持銀行間流動性穩定。由於強勁的需求,新貸款略有下降,但貸款增長將進一步放緩。鑑於更高的收益率,個人貸款收益率已有所提高,而企業貸款收益率亦或會見底反彈。富瑞指出,對內地銀行保持樂觀,首選為建設銀行(0939.HK)及農業銀行(1288.HK)。

富瑞表示,內地3月份TSF按年增長12.3%,升幅較2月份的13.3%有所收窄,主要由於去年3月的TSF受疫情壓抑貸款的提振,基數因而較高;表外融資減少;地方政府債券的發行量減少。由於內地監管的目標是保持穩定的槓桿比率,因此該行預期,TSF的增速將進一步放緩。

該行指,3月份貸款增長按月跌0.3個百分點至12.6%,預期今年貸款增長將進一步放緩至11%至12.2%的水平。由於收益率較高,預料個人貸款將成為2021年新增貸款的主要動力。此外,考慮到有限的貸款額度和強勁的貸款需求,富瑞預料企業貸款的收益率將見底。

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