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植耀辉: 港股跌阿里(09988.HK)反弹 瑞声(02018.HK)盈喜惟47元阻力大
阿思达克 04-13 10:56
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,虽然上周五(9日)美股造好,惟上综指再度下跌,加上腾讯(00700.HK)及美团(03690.HK)等科技股再度受压,北水亦出现净沽出情况,昨日(12日)港股下跌245点,收报28,453点,成交金额1,607亿元。阿里(09988.HK)因违反《反垄断法》,被处以罚款182.28亿元人民币,但大行对阿里前景依然正面,认为监管压力已消除,其股价亦大幅反弹6.5%,至232.2元;反观其余科技股表现欠佳,腾讯及美团便分别下跌1.1%及5%,小米(01810.HK)亦跌近3%。恐怕未来一段时间,科技股之政策阴霾仍难以挥去,短期仍将跑输大市。

由於A股势弱,相信港股暂亦难有较大憧憬,当然由於港股明显跑输美股,故如气氛有所改善,港股亦不难出现反弹,同时预期27,800至28,000点水平会有一定支持。只是上综指一日未能重新向上突破3,450点水平,後市仍只会呈上落格局矣!

股份方面,则不得不提昨日逆市急升之瑞声(02018.HK),其股价昨日急升12.7%,主要是大行唱好之余,公司亦发首季盈喜,预期盈利大升10倍。首季盈利按年急升某程度上是与去年基数低有关,不过去年第四季度集团毛利率已出现反弹,相信最坏时间有望过去,未来表现则要视乎镜头产品毛利率能否如大行预期般持续有改善,只是股价已大幅抽升,加上亦已逼近46至47元之重大阻力区间,故现阶段还是再作观望较好。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,持有腾讯股份)

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恒指後市仍欠缺明确方向

耀才研究部称,隔晚(12日)美股三大指数微跌收市,整体变动不大,市场正观望新一轮企业季绩,摩根大通(JPM.US)和富国银行(WFC.US)将会在本周三公布首季业绩。港股ADR普遍靠稳,ADR港股比例指数收报28,598点,较上日港股升144点,而黑期今早(13日)亦升逾150点至28,530点水平,恒指今早有望先行略作反弹。内地上月新增贷款略高於预期,3月新增贷款2.73万亿元人民币,高过市场预期的2.45万亿元人民币,消息有利中港两地股市於短期後市扭转连日来的弱势,A股於短期後市表现将成关键。

从技术上看,恒指昨日再度下试100天线,该线已上移至28,200点水平,只要恒指力保不失此关,暂时後市仍无需过分悲观。短线较关键的阻力位则在50天线29,200点水平,一日恒指仍处於28,200点至29,200点水平左近,後市仍欠缺明确方向。

(笔者为证监会持牌人)~

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