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植耀輝: 港股跌阿里(09988.HK)反彈 瑞聲(02018.HK)盈喜惟47元阻力大
阿思達克 04-13 10:56
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,雖然上周五(9日)美股造好,惟上綜指再度下跌,加上騰訊(00700.HK)及美團(03690.HK)等科技股再度受壓,北水亦出現淨沽出情況,昨日(12日)港股下跌245點,收報28,453點,成交金額1,607億元。阿里(09988.HK)因違反《反壟斷法》,被處以罰款182.28億元人民幣,但大行對阿里前景依然正面,認為監管壓力已消除,其股價亦大幅反彈6.5%,至232.2元;反觀其餘科技股表現欠佳,騰訊及美團便分別下跌1.1%及5%,小米(01810.HK)亦跌近3%。恐怕未來一段時間,科技股之政策陰霾仍難以揮去,短期仍將跑輸大市。

由於A股勢弱,相信港股暫亦難有較大憧憬,當然由於港股明顯跑輸美股,故如氣氛有所改善,港股亦不難出現反彈,同時預期27,800至28,000點水平會有一定支持。只是上綜指一日未能重新向上突破3,450點水平,後市仍只會呈上落格局矣!

股份方面,則不得不提昨日逆市急升之瑞聲(02018.HK),其股價昨日急升12.7%,主要是大行唱好之餘,公司亦發首季盈喜,預期盈利大升10倍。首季盈利按年急升某程度上是與去年基數低有關,不過去年第四季度集團毛利率已出現反彈,相信最壞時間有望過去,未來表現則要視乎鏡頭產品毛利率能否如大行預期般持續有改善,只是股價已大幅抽升,加上亦已逼近46至47元之重大阻力區間,故現階段還是再作觀望較好。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有騰訊股份)

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恆指後市仍欠缺明確方向

耀才研究部稱,隔晚(12日)美股三大指數微跌收市,整體變動不大,市場正觀望新一輪企業季績,摩根大通(JPM.US)和富國銀行(WFC.US)將會在本周三公布首季業績。港股ADR普遍靠穩,ADR港股比例指數收報28,598點,較上日港股升144點,而黑期今早(13日)亦升逾150點至28,530點水平,恆指今早有望先行略作反彈。內地上月新增貸款略高於預期,3月新增貸款2.73萬億元人民幣,高過市場預期的2.45萬億元人民幣,消息有利中港兩地股市於短期後市扭轉連日來的弱勢,A股於短期後市表現將成關鍵。

從技術上看,恆指昨日再度下試100天線,該線已上移至28,200點水平,只要恆指力保不失此關,暫時後市仍無需過分悲觀。短線較關鍵的阻力位則在50天線29,200點水平,一日恆指仍處於28,200點至29,200點水平左近,後市仍欠缺明確方向。

(筆者為證監會持牌人)~

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