《大行報告》中金:騰訊(00700.HK)不直接參與同業巨頭「超級大戰」 料仍可藉佈局分享行業紅利
就騰訊(00700.HK)遭大股東Prosus減持1.92億股騰訊股票,持股比例下降至28.9%,並承諾未來三年不減持。中金發表報告表示,對Prosus減持行為不必過分擔心。在騰訊2004年上市後的十七年間,Prosus的持股時間和比例均顯現出對騰訊業務的信念。本次大宗交易較4月7日收盤價折讓5.5%,對應2021年非通用會計準則市盈率30.8倍。
該行認為騰訊2018年遭Prosus減持後的股價走勢對本次參考意義有限,該行依然看好騰訊業務發展,認為騰訊2021年調整後淨利潤有望維持20%以上的增長。
中金指,從一至三年的中期維度看,騰訊旗下多項業務可明顯好轉,第一是認為其旗下視頻號、小程序、雲業務都逐漸找到了公司擅長的路線,通用型產品加社交關係強化的打法,將支撐未來三年的穩健成長;第二是目前互聯網用戶滲透率進入深水區,巨頭面前要麼是低客單價且供應鏈要求高的生鮮(社區團購),要麼是涉及傳統巨型產業改造的領域(造車),要麼是以十年為單位的超遠期新業務(無人駕駛)。雖然每一項的成功都意味著很大空間,但幾乎每個領域都有艱苦戰役。
該行認為騰訊是幾乎不直接參與上述「超級大戰」,但依然有望憑借社交網絡地位和投資佈局分享行業紅利的典範,騰訊依然是互聯網板塊的核心資產。該行維持對騰訊「中性」評級和目標價682元,對應預測2022年非通用會計準則預測市盈率31.7倍。
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