野村:維持中國人壽(2628.HK)買入評級 目標價23.41港元
野村發表研究報吿指,中國人壽(2628.HK)去年淨利潤和淨資產都略高於該行預期,主要由於更高的投資回報率所推動。新業務價值略遜預期,但內含價值就符合預期。野村維持國壽H股目標價23.41港元,以及買入評級。
野村表示,國壽去年淨利潤按年跌14%,意味下半年跌幅為5%,雖然投資收益有所增加,但仍受到準備金的拖累。新業務價值按年跌1%至580億元人民幣,遠好過同業,但較該行預期低2.5%,亦反映出下半年新業務價值按年跌11%,而上半年的新業務價值則按年增長7%。
該行指出,由於代理人線下銷售活動仍受到一定程度的限制,因此下半年的首年業務保費按年跌20%。不過,下半年的業務利潤率有所改善。該行又指,正在審視對集團的預測,下行風險包括股市表現波動,以及投資收益遜預期。
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