《大行報告》大和:內地收緊電子煙監管 料思摩爾(06969.HK)短期受壓 但長期影響可控
大和發表報告表示,國家工信部於昨日(22日)收市後公布《關於修改中華人民共和國煙草專賣法實施條例的決定(徵求意見稿)》,建議電子煙將如傳統香煙般一樣受到管制,此意味著相關稅率上升,該行估計新規定可能會降低思摩爾國際(06969.HK)在中國的利潤率。
該行認為思摩爾國際股價短期將面臨壓力,但由於思摩爾國際於2020年僅約20%的銷售額來自中國,因此估計相關影響都應可控。該行認為內地對電子煙的新法規,表明中國政府願意讓電子煙行業長期健康發展意願,此最終可以消除電子煙行業長期存在的主要問題。
大和指目前,中國電子煙被歸為普通消費品,因此僅需繳納13%的增值稅率,對比傳統香煙的總稅則超過50%(包括消費稅)。該行認為目前量化對思摩爾國際的影響屬言之過早,但該行認為實際的財務影響將受到以下限制,據該行估計思摩爾至2020年只有約20%的收入來自中國內地;第二是該行估計產品零售價是出廠價4至6倍,因此有足夠的空間來吸收稅收增長;第三是電子煙的需求是相當缺乏彈性的,因此成本增加很可能會轉嫁給最終客戶;第四是負擔很可能在多個行業價值鏈中分佈不均,品牌所有者承擔了更大的負擔。儘管零售價格可能會上漲,但鑑於內地的滲透率較低,該行預計電子煙的需求不會顯著減弱。
該行重申對思摩爾國際「跑贏大市」評級及目標價90元,此相當預測今年動態市盈率1.8倍。
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