《大行报告》大摩维持腾讯(00700.HK)基本情境目标价820元 升「最乐观」情境预测可上望1,000元
摩根士丹利发报告表示,重申对腾讯(00700.HK)「增持」投资评级,维持基本情境目标价820元,此相当市值1万亿美元,料网游及短视频业务可提供持。
该行指,腾讯旗下「视频号」业务正铺路未来进行货币化,料相关短视频至2025年潜在市场规模(Total Addressble Market,TAM)达1,400亿美元,该行决定上调对腾讯2020年至2025年广告收入复合增长率预测,由18%上调至21%,料「视频号」可为公司提供股价催化剂。
大摩表示,上调对腾讯「最乐观」(bull-case)情境的目标价情境预测,由932元升至1,000元,此计及「视频号」令腾讯社交网络提供更高价值。
该行料腾讯2025年短视频收入达920亿人民币,按市场保守估算,腾讯到时在相关短视频的市场份额为10%,对比同业抖音及快手(01024.HK)市场份额各为42%及26%,该行料腾讯藉短视频业务,至2025年可取得内地短视频广告市场份额13.5%、直播电商市场份额5%。
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