《大行报告》瑞银:内地利率环境料有利内银股净息差
瑞银发表研究报告,指国务院总理李克强公布今年度政府工作报告,包括今年GDP增长目标为6%以上,相信反映中国将於今年退出部份宽松政策,并针对更多有关防范风险的问题。李克强同时重申,政府会维持政策的稳定性,不会急速转向。今年财政预算赤字降50点子至3.2%,且没有特别国债的发行计划。而新的地方政府特别债券限额减少1,000亿元人民币至3.65万亿元人民币。财政方面,中国M2和社会融资总量亦预期与实际GDP增长速度相若,在CPI目标为3%以下,意味着M2/社会融资总量今年增长约10-11%。
该行指,在利率方面,李克强指中国将改善对存款利率的监管,推动有效贷款利率进一步降低,以持续引导金融系统支持实体经济。不过,讲法与银保监主席郭树清的说法有出入,郭树清之前指,今年贷款定价和利率有增加的可能性。该行认为在通账预期和政策利率提升的背景下,市场利率亦有可能提升,相信今年利率环境将有利银行的净息差走势,特别是具有较多存款的银行。
该行又指,政府工作报告亦有对微企和中小企的支持政策,包括允许大型银行继续以30%以上的增长速度向微企和中小企提供贷款,相信多项支持性政策会持续。而若以温和步伐退出支持性政策,预期资产质素大致稳定,不良贷款率不会大跌。另外,金融科技的政策风险料会持续。
该行表示,目前最影响内银股的四大风险,分别为资产质素的恶化;资本、流动性、账外资产相关的监管风险;资金结构以及资产负债表的流动性;中期利率自由化。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.