瑞银料今年两会或不设定具体经济增速目标
全国两会即将於本周召开,瑞银亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛预计,今年两会将基本延续十九届五中全会所列出的主要发展目标,以及去年12月中央经济工作会议中所设定的政策基调。
她指,疫情冲击过後,今年国内经济有望在去年的低基数上大幅反弹,瑞银预测全年实际增速为8.2%。基於此,该行认为政府今年可能不会设定具体的经济增速目标,或者仅设定一个目标下限并留出足够的上行空间(比如至少达到6%),以免误导市场。
她提到,考虑到今年经济增长有望大幅反弹,预计政府在今年将更加注重防风险和控杠杆,可能下调财政预算赤字率,稳健的货币政策可能更加强调精准适度。另外,今年两会还将批准和公布十四五规划纲要全文,其中将包括改革开放、科技创新、绿色发展等重要主题。瑞银预计,今年官方一般公共预算赤字率会从去年的3.7%降到3%或以下,增广财政赤字率可能会下降3个百分点左右。
另外,政府今年料不会再发行特别国债,去年发行了1万亿元人民币(下同),并下调地方政府专项债的新增额度,从去年的3.75万亿降到3万亿元左右,同时去年实施的大部分减税降费政策到期後不会再延期。
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