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分析料内地倘放宽生育限制 亦难扭转生育率跌势
阿思达克 03-01 13:48
内地新生婴儿连续四年下降,去年跌15%至约1,000万名。全国两会开幕在即,继2016年正式取消一孩政策,容许每家庭生育两个小孩後,市场关注内地政府会否进一步放宽生育限制。有经济师称,人口老化带来的挑战较一孩政策更大;面对出生率下滑及人口急剧老化,需要有更多转变以刺激生育。

上海保银投资管理(Pinpoint)首席经济师Zhiwei Zhang称,有两个方向应对问题,一是放宽生育限制,但轻微改善情况,即使全面放宽,料亦难以扭转生育率跌势。另一方向是从经济层面上,让工业更依赖其他领域。

内地经济高度依赖制造业等工业,但随着工资增加,令工厂变得不吸引,而劳工亦需要更高技术以适应创新型经济。

法国外贸银行(Natixis)亚太区首席经济师Alicia Garcia-Herrero称,内地面对更大问题在於人口老化加剧现时劳工生产力增长放缓的问题;她正观察内地资本密集领域会否有更大增长,主要由自动化相关投资牵动。

恒生中国首席经济师Dan Wang称,一般而言,料放宽生育政策的经济重要性有限,过去廿年生育率下降不是由於政策限制的问题。按其他国家经验,以中国这样庞大的国家来说,欢迎移民是最有效的方法,但短期料不会发生。

Wang称,其他已采用的政策,包括推迟退休年龄,加强教育提升现有劳动力技能,及加强利用人工智能及机械取代人手。

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