分析料內地倘放寬生育限制 亦難扭轉生育率跌勢
內地新生嬰兒連續四年下降,去年跌15%至約1,000萬名。全國兩會開幕在即,繼2016年正式取消一孩政策,容許每家庭生育兩個小孩後,市場關注內地政府會否進一步放寬生育限制。有經濟師稱,人口老化帶來的挑戰較一孩政策更大;面對出生率下滑及人口急劇老化,需要有更多轉變以刺激生育。
上海保銀投資管理(Pinpoint)首席經濟師Zhiwei Zhang稱,有兩個方向應對問題,一是放寬生育限制,但輕微改善情況,即使全面放寬,料亦難以扭轉生育率跌勢。另一方向是從經濟層面上,讓工業更依賴其他領域。
內地經濟高度依賴製造業等工業,但隨著工資增加,令工廠變得不吸引,而勞工亦需要更高技術以適應創新型經濟。
法國外貿銀行(Natixis)亞太區首席經濟師Alicia Garcia-Herrero稱,內地面對更大問題在於人口老化加劇現時勞工生產力增長放緩的問題;她正觀察內地資本密集領域會否有更大增長,主要由自動化相關投資牽動。
恆生中國首席經濟師Dan Wang稱,一般而言,料放寬生育政策的經濟重要性有限,過去廿年生育率下降不是由於政策限制的問題。按其他國家經驗,以中國這樣龐大的國家來說,歡迎移民是最有效的方法,但短期料不會發生。
Wang稱,其他已採用的政策,包括推遲退休年齡,加強教育提升現有勞動力技能,及加強利用人工智能及機械取代人手。
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