《大行报告》中金:港交所(00388.HK)业绩符预期 料印花税上调实际影响有限
中金发表研究报告,港交所(00388.HK)2020年总收入按年增长18%至192亿元,净利润增长23%至115亿元;EBITDA利润率增加2个百分点至77%,符合该行和市场预期,主因是市场交投活跃、新经济和中概股持续上市带动主营业务增长;分红比例维持90%所致。基於更活跃的市场交易及新经济上市进程,该行预计今年盈利增长有望提速、维持全年平均每日成交额2,000亿元假设。
该行指出,香港特区政府在新一份财政预算案计划将股票印花税由0.1%上调至0.13%;相关预算案仍需通过立法程序。该行认为,印花税的上调实际影响有限,主要对现货市场的量化或程式交易的活跃度影响较为敏感;由於港股市场现行印花税本身就较高,当前量化或程式交易在现货市场占比估计在10至20%。考虑2020年现货市场交易及结算收入贡献约30%,估算现货市场量化或程式交易对交易所整体收入贡献3%至6%。
中金维持港交所2021及2022年的盈利预测不变,投资评级仍为「跑赢大市」,目标价维持在634元不变。
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