穆迪分析料今年港GDP升4.9% 疫苗接种助经济重启
穆迪分析首席亚太区经济师Steve Cochrane在线上会议中指出,去年第四季香港GDP未见显着改善,主要因为期内社交距离措施收紧,而受封关影响零售、旅游业等仍然受阻,不过香港并非区内表现最差,菲律宾、马来西亚及泰国等地情况更差,而中国内地、越南及台湾则恢复得较快。他续指亚太主要地区已锁定疫苗供应,而香港亦在本周开始接种,认为对港有利,日後亦有望可重开关口等。他预期今年中国将带领复苏,估计中国内地、越南等地今年将有较强反弹,而香港实际GDP亦料增达4.9%,下半年的情况将逐步改善。
穆迪分析经济学家Xu Xiaochun表示对香港看法审慎乐观,料随着确诊个案下降,消费将带动复苏,而疫苗本周起接种料将助本港经济重开,不过封关对投资、服务输出、零售及旅游仍有影响,估计关口或要到第三季才会有机会重开,并以旅游气泡或是疫苗护照等形式进行。
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