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紧信用!抱团散!杀估值!A股风格转变,白酒蒸发4000亿
格隆汇 02-22 15:16

春节前一路暴涨、春节后首个交易日就大挫近4%的白酒板块,在本周继续回调,连续3个交易中已累计回调超10%。

截至今日发稿,中证白酒指数跌近7.5%,创下中证白酒指数2020年7月16日至今的最大单日跌幅。整个白酒板块总市值较上亿交易日蒸发了4000亿元有余。

 板块内成分股方面,山西汾酒、酒鬼酒跌停,五粮液、泸州老窖、洋河股份跌逾8%。

 而白酒股的绝对中心——贵州茅台,全天震荡走低,一度跌超7%,最终收跌6.99%,亦是自去年7月16日以来的最大单日跌幅。

在横跨春节假期的2月8日至19日(上周五)的5个交易日内,北上资金(沪股通)连续净卖出贵州茅台,资金累计流出约30亿元。而今日,贵州茅台再遭北上资金净卖出近3亿元。

除白酒板块外,医药板块以及前期的热门抱团股如美的集团、中国中免、海天味业等今日也纷纷大跌。

可见,主流资金加速调仓是抱团板块下跌的主要原因。而资金投资风格转换背后的主要原因,一个是前期抱团股的暴涨已计入了较满的预期,而近期并新的利好释出,因此抱团股本身已经存在估值过高的现象;

另一个主要原因,自然是央行继续收紧的货币政策。目前市场上的各类投资者对于宏观流动性的敏感度都非常高,对流动性边际转紧的背景下对A股估值的下压存在普遍的担忧。

节后开市当天,央行便开展了2000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作,即在春节后逐步回笼现金;以及200亿元逆回购操作,中标利率持平于2.2%。

与此同时,国债期货在今年1月底破位持续走低,打破了债熊接近尾声的市场预期。10年期国债期货主力合约今日再跌0.06%。

在流动性收紧、市场上资金不足的情势颇为明显的情况下,前期暴涨以至于出现较大估值泡沫的板块——白酒、医药,自然在杀估值时首当其冲。

相反,前期较冷的有色、化工股今日集体飙涨。有色金属指数以超过7.5%的涨幅领涨市场。

个股方面,板块内包括北方稀土、天山铝业、江西铜业在内的20支个股涨停。紫金矿业涨逾7%、洛阳钼业涨逾6.5%。

不过,以银河证券为代表的券商认为,股市流动性的拐点尚未到来,不必对货币政策的微调草木皆兵,只有货币流动性持续大幅收紧才可能使股市进入熊市。而货币政策目前仍保持“灵活精准、合理适度”的基调,稳健中性的基调并没有变,居民财富增配股市的大趋势尚未发生变化。

而据民生证券分析,近期抱团板块的下跌体现了市场主流资金在加速调仓,主要原因有两个:一是前期强势板块股价已计入的预期较满,近期未有明显进一步利好,高估值本身就是调仓换股的原因。二是部分高确定性标的估值体系从市盈率相对盈利增长比率、利润收益率切换为贴现率,而贴现率上行就是估值最大的敌人,然后会通过同业公司比较,带动板块内估值水平一同下行。

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