《业绩前瞻》券商料银娱(00027.HK)去年亏损逾47亿元 料上季经调整EBITDA转正数
受新冠疫情大流行拖累下，各地区采取严格防疫措施，澳门去年博彩收入按年倒退79.3%至604.41亿澳门元，银河娱乐(00027.HK)将於下周四(25日)公布去年业绩。本网综合7间券商预期银娱2020年业绩将录得盈转亏蚀41.68亿元至62.64亿元，中位数为亏损47.33亿元，对比2019年录纯利130.42亿元。
本网综合6间券商预期银娱2020年经调整EBITDA为负9.53亿元至19.53亿元，中位数负11.21亿元。本网综合6间券商预期银娱2020年净收益介乎120.79亿元至151.86亿元，按年跌70.7%至76.7%，中位数为129.75亿元，按年跌75%。
因澳门已复批自由行签证，赌收持续温和复苏，券商普遍料银娱去年第四季EBITDA已回复正数，但内地疫情早前反覆，内地部门呼吁原地过年减少出行，令澳门客量淡静且稍逊预期，投资者观望疫苗与疫情发展，等待澳门将向内地争取恢复网上签注及团队游，期待银娱管理层最新营运、澳门银河第三期工程完工等指引。
【受疫情拖累 去年盈转亏】
高盛上月发表研究报告表示，自澳门复批自由行签证，赌收持续温和复苏，跌幅由8月及9月的95%及90%，收窄至12月66%，累计去年全年赌收跌79%至75亿美元。考虑到香港目前仍然封关，而过去香港占旅客量的三分一，目前赌收一半来自非香港相关的数字已回复。
该行指，目前客量较预期为低，在政府仍强调以控制疫情为主的情况下，预期直至疫苗有效前，旅游限制不会完全解除，意味着旅客复苏仍需时。目前预期2020年赌收258.93亿美元，较2019年水平低28%，料2021年行业才可回复至360亿美元的水平，对行业维持乐观看法。
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本网综合7间券商预期银娱2020年业绩将录得盈转亏蚀41.68亿元至62.64亿元，中位数为亏损47.33亿元，对比2019年录纯利130.42亿元。
券商│2020年纯利预测(港元)│按年变幅
中银国际|亏损41.68亿元|盈转亏
摩根大通|亏损44.35亿元|盈转亏
花旗|亏损44.63亿元|盈转亏
里昂|亏损47.33亿元|盈转亏
广发证券|亏损47.43亿元|盈转亏
高盛|亏损47.54亿元|盈转亏
美银证券|亏损62.64亿元|盈转亏
按银娱2019年纯利130.42亿元计算
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本网综合6间券商预期银娱2020年净收益介乎120.79亿元至151.86亿元，按年跌70.7%至76.7%，中位数为129.75亿元，按年跌75%。
券商│2020年净收益预测(港元)│按年变幅
高盛|151.86亿元|-70.7%
广发证券|143.82亿元|-72.3%
中银国际|134.09亿元|-74.2%
花旗|125.4亿元|-75.8%
摩根大通|122.34亿元|-76.4%
美银证券|120.79亿元|-76.7%
按银娱2019年净收益为519亿元计算
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本网综合6间券商预期银娱2020年经调整EBITDA为负9.53亿元至19.53亿元，中位数负11.21亿元。
券商│2020年经调整EBITDA预测(港元)
中银国际|-9.53亿元
里昂|-11亿元
花旗|-11.14亿元
摩根大通|-11.28亿元
高盛|-12.32亿元
广发证券|-19.53亿元
按银娱2019年经调整EBITDA的164.79亿元计
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