《大行报告》里昂上调海螺水泥(00914.HK)目标价至77.31元 料升派息比率可成催化剂
里昂发表的研究报告指指,中期认为海螺水泥(00914.HK)可受惠需求强劲及供应改善,其盈利及股本回报率可较稳定,参考其他海外企业的经验,当盈利及股本回报率回稳,估值应有上行,虽然未有调整公司的盈利预测,但就重申「买入」评级,目标价由75.06元升至77.31元,料派息比率提升有望成为中期重估的催化剂。
该行指出在基建方面受惠逆周期措施逐步推行,估计基建开支将复苏,而内地城镇化比率在2019年亦达60%,估计亦将继续上升。而在供应层面该行亦料将有改善,不过在产能置换等的监管收紧,加上煤炭价格上升等均会提升生产成本,估计假如煤炭价格每吨升200元人民币,每单位生产成本及毛利将分别升13%及跌14%。
该行指出参考海外企业的表现後,留意到当公司成为行业龙头、并开始多元化发展後,增长会倾向较平稳,而股本回报率亦会维持稳定,届时估值就会出现反弹。里昂料海螺水泥未来亦会进入盈利能力回稳的阶段,另一方面亦估计派息比率将由32%升至35%左右,意味股息率将达4%,对估值亦有拉动作用。
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