《大行報告》里昂上調海螺水泥(00914.HK)目標價至77.31元 料升派息比率可成催化劑
里昂發表的研究報告指指,中期認為海螺水泥(00914.HK)可受惠需求強勁及供應改善,其盈利及股本回報率可較穩定,參考其他海外企業的經驗,當盈利及股本回報率回穩,估值應有上行,雖然未有調整公司的盈利預測,但就重申「買入」評級,目標價由75.06元升至77.31元,料派息比率提升有望成為中期重估的催化劑。
該行指出在基建方面受惠逆週期措施逐步推行,估計基建開支將復甦,而內地城鎮化比率在2019年亦達60%,估計亦將繼續上升。而在供應層面該行亦料將有改善,不過在產能置換等的監管收緊,加上煤炭價格上升等均會提升生產成本,估計假如煤炭價格每噸升200元人民幣,每單位生產成本及毛利將分別升13%及跌14%。
該行指出參考海外企業的表現後,留意到當公司成為行業龍頭、並開始多元化發展後,增長會傾向較平穩,而股本回報率亦會維持穩定,屆時估值就會出現反彈。里昂料海螺水泥未來亦會進入盈利能力回穩的階段,另一方面亦估計派息比率將由32%升至35%左右,意味股息率將達4%,對估值亦有拉動作用。
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