匯豐環球投資管理看好今年中國經濟前景 料北水持續流入港股
匯豐環球投資管理中國及香港股票部主管沈昱表示,對中國今年經濟前景樂觀,料中國會繼續引領全球經濟復甦,宏觀環境改善及人民幣強勢預期會有利企業盈利反彈。雖然信貸、貨幣及財政政策將開始回復較中性及正常化,但目前未見內地有顯著收緊政策的訊號。
沈昱指,中國今年開始「十四五」規劃,將注重高質素、更為平衡及可持續的增長,估計在疫情後復甦的相關短期主題過去後,中長期投資主題會以內循環、數碼化及綠色經濟為主,該行相關中國股票基金亦以資訊科技、非必需消費及健康護理等三大主題相關行業的比重較高。
對於近期北水持續流入港股,沈昱稱北水自去年下半年已開始增加南下投資港股,由於有不少新建基金亦有配置港股持倉的可能,估計北水南下趨勢仍會持續。她認為,港股相對A股過去兩年的增長比較少,且有獨特行業股份選擇,加上估值有一定吸引力,在中港市場長期進一步融合下,料資金會靈活地於兩地市場調配。
此外,她預期港股今年企業盈利增長約15%至20%,在沒有估值重評下投資者回報亦料處相若水平。她又相信,中概股今年會繼續來港上市,認為對香港市場活躍度有幫助,亦令投資者有更多選擇,若日後中概股獲納入港股通,也有助提高港股流動性。
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