华创证券首予快手(01024.HK)「推荐」评级 予目标价区间248至304元
华创证券发表报告表示,首予快手(01024.HK)「推荐」评级,予目标价区间248至304元。该行预计快手2020年至2022年营收分别为585.3亿、794.5亿和1,018亿人民币按年增速分别为49.6%、35.7%、28.1%。
若按市销率估值,快手未来两年收入能见度较高,参考哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)2022年预测市销率11倍,对应快手2022年1,018亿人民币营收,该行给予快手预测市销率估值8倍至10倍,对应8,144亿至1,0180亿人民币。按单日活用户价值:对标同为内容平台的哔哩哔哩(目前哔哩哔哩用户增速更高,但快手变现能力更强,哔哩哔哩单日活跃用户价值750美元),给予快手单日活跃用户为500至600美元价值,对应快手市值估值应为1,300亿至1,560亿美元(约1万亿至1.21亿港元),对应快手目标价248至304港元。
【行业三强鼎立 广告为增长点】
就腾讯(00700.HK)旗下「视频号」的「异军突起」,对本已稳固的「抖快(抖音与快手)双雄」格局造成了冲击,长期看,该行判断「三强林立」的格局会持续存在。内容消费依托场景而存在,腾讯旗下视频号的社交工作场景天然与抖音、快手纯娱乐场景形成区隔。娱乐化的抖音及快手与基於社交关系成长的「视频号」,无论在满足用户需求、视频内容的类型、还是产品定位上均有较大不同。
就何看待快手未来的商业化进程,华创证券指以三年为周期,2017至2019年看直播、2020至2022年看广告,长期看电商业务。该行指快手旗下直播打赏方面,从增速来看直播打赏业务已经走过了2017年至2019年的高速增长期,预计未来保持10%左右稳健增速。
该行指快手旗下广告业务是未来三年驱动快手收入增长的最大看点。目前快手的单日活用户广告价值远低於抖音,而快手2020年向抖音学习,8.0改版、磁力引擎升级、推出更多广告产品(小店通),预计2020年至2022年广告业务复合增速有望超50%。
华创证券料快手於2020年至2023年亏损预测各为982.63亿、897.42亿及797.08亿人民币。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.