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国信证券首予快手(01024.HK)「买入」评级 料合理市值最高近9,800亿元
阿思达克 02-05 08:51
国信证券上周发表报告,首予快手(01024.HK)「买入」评级,认为公司的2023年的合理估值为市值1,141亿至1,264亿美元(约8,845.8亿至9,799.4亿港元),对应2023年市销率为5倍至5.5倍,采用股权自由现金流(FCFF)估值方法。

该行指,内地短视频是一个优质的增量赛道。快手作为行业龙头,除直播业务外,广告、直播电商的变现处於非常初级的阶段,根据产品改版和公司近期动向判断,短期内,快手广告业务变现将迎来高速增长;长期来看,直播电商的货币化率和GMV均存在非常大的提升空间,有望成为快手继直播、广告之外的第三增长曲线。

基於对快手发展的看好,该行预期快手在2020年至2022年收入增速分别为52%、39%、42%,长远来看,销售费率会有所降低。

国信证券表示,快手直播已经进入平稳增长阶段,料公司於2020年至2023年直播收入的复合增长率为5%。该行估计快手的广告加载率的提升、数据及销售能力的优化,都有望提升其广告变现效率,且确定性较强,预计公司旗下广告业务於2020年至2023年收入复合增长率为58%。直播电商的GMV、变现效率均有较大提升空间,料其2020年至2023年直播电商收入复合增长率约为80%,有望成为快手的第三变现曲线。

该行料快手2020年及2021年各亏1,042.19亿及79.36亿人民币、并估计公司2022年扭亏为盈赚86.65亿人民币、料2023年录纯利222.79亿人民币。

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