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暗盤已漲2倍,明天上市的快手還能漲多少?
格隆匯 02-04 19:26

即將在明日上市的快手,目前已經開始暗盤交易。

截止文章發出,快手報價336.6港元,據115港元的發行價上漲192.7%,總市值達到1.4萬億港元,一手(100股)中籤賬面賺22160港元

快手目前是“短視頻第一股”,稀缺性及想象力使投資者的熱情高漲。在目前已經1.4萬億的暗盤基礎上,明天上市的快手還有多少空間呢?

PS估值

從快手的Q3的業績來看,經調整淨利潤為-72億,目前處於虧損,因此需要使用PS方法估值。

目前來看,市場上給予互聯網公司的2021年預測PS在5-15倍之間。

較低估值的代表為阿里、百度,2021預測PS分別為6倍及5倍;中性的為美團與騰訊,2021預測PS分別為11倍及9倍,而市場給予最高估值的為拼多多與嗶哩嗶哩,2020預測PS為17及16倍。

2020年前三季度,快手總營收為407億元,Q3單季度營收為154億元,在上半年253億的基礎上大幅增長。按不同增速預測,可得到2021年快手預測營收如下

圖:營收預測

根據市場不同的估值水平,分別給與快手三個級別的估值。

圖:估值預測

因此,如果設定50%的營收增速,市場最高的15倍PS,則快手的估值最高可達到1.7萬億港元。

單用户價值

以目前暗盤收盤價計算,快手市值達到1.38萬億港元。以快手2020Q3的月活用户數量4.83億來計算,快手的單用户價值可以達到2857港元/人,約368.5美元/人。

在互聯網公司中,目前單用户價值最高的為阿里巴巴,單用户價值為810美元/人。與快手目前單用户價值相近的公司為京東及拼多多,分別為435美元/人和368美元/人。

在目前市場上,並沒有與快手一樣的短視頻企業上市,上述的幾家公司拿來和快手比,在商業模式上其實並不完全吻合。

從業務上來看,目前與快手較為相似的企業為視頻網站嗶哩嗶哩。無論是風格、“定位”、管理甚至是“問題”,二者都較為相似。快手接近70%的用户30歲以下,與B站用户同樣很年輕;二者用户重合率10%-20%左右,二者用户處於接壤狀態。快手的用户也是B站破圈的重要方向,更何況去年快手還全資收購了曾經B站的競爭對手A站。

B站目前市值470億美元左右,月活用户約2億,單用户價值約235美金/人,如果以嗶哩嗶哩的單用户價值來計算,快手的估值將達到1128億美金,合8744億港元。

與B站相比,快手目前的單用户價值顯得要高得多。當然,B站也僅是與快手相似,也並不能完全代表快手的價值。

總結

從PS估值來看,目前暗盤下的快手估值在互聯網行業中已經排在前列,這充分顯示出了快手在資本市場上的稀缺性。

由於快手目前在資本市場的“獨一無二”,上述的估值並不能完全合理體現出快手的價值。而市場對快手如何估值、快手在這1.4萬億上還要怎麼走,明天一切將會揭曉。

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