《大行報告》中信建投升港交所(00388.HK)目標價至622元 料港股「連水換魚」效應加速
中信建投發表報告表示,在基準情形下,據2020年底香港主板市值為47.5萬億港元,綜合考慮新經濟巨頭赴港上市節奏的加速以及整體香港市場景氣度的抬升,給予2021年香港平均市值預測為55萬億港元,換手率相對2020年提升20%(仍顯著低於2015年的水平),該行預計港股今年的日均成交額為1,980億元。
該行上調對港交所目標價至622元,相當於今明兩年預測市盈率50倍及45倍。
中信建投料2021年不一樣的地方,在於港股南下資金於日均成交佔比已經顯著提升,新經濟巨頭活躍的持續性較強。該行指港股於2015年第二季度,南下日均成交額僅佔比僅為2.2%,2018年首季度,南下ADT佔比有所提升,但仍只有6.8%。2021年1月,南下日均成交佔比已達到14.2%,對市場的影響程度顯著提升。
中信建投指,港股「連水換魚」效益加速顯現,指互聯互通進一步擴大,北上成交及南下成交均呈現放大趨勢,特別是是內地資金南下今年1月累計淨買入已達到3,106億元(對比2020年全年為6,721億元),平均每日淨買入為155.3億港元(2020年平均為29.7億港元),主要是由於新發基金發行「火爆」,且可配置港股的基金顯著增多;第二是資金尋求「更高性價比」資產。從總量角度看,北上南下均有巨大提升空間,目前外資A股佔比僅為2.78%,顯著低於亞太主流股市,港股通累計淨買入僅為2萬億元,佔港交所主板整體市值僅為4%。
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