《大行报告》汇丰研究调整火电股目标价 首选润电(00836.HK)
汇丰环球研究发表报告,指由於煤炭现货价升浪开始,去年末季对内地火电股看法转趋审慎,在供需关系紧张下今年1月升至每吨约1,000元人民币历史高位,并指高煤价属今年核心风险。该行近期上调全年预测12%至每吨615元人民币。该行称,煤电企业购买合约价远低於现货价,但其今年上半年每单位燃料成本仍按年显着上升,特别是今年首季。
该行上调火电股燃料成本预测,并下调其今年盈测介乎3%至8%,并调整目标价,该行下调对华润电力(00836.HK)目标价由10.8元降至10.2元,维持「买入」评级;调低对华能(00902.HK)目标价由3.3元降至3.1元,维持「持有」评级;该行调高中国电力(02380.HK)目标价,由1.5元升至1.55元,维持「持有」评级。
该行称,即使煤价自去年末季上升,市场对火电股今年盈测并未有下调。该行料市场对其盈测下调及公司更趋消极的指引将为股价负面催化剂。除了盈利展望恶化外,日益增加的「环境、社会和企业管治」(ESG)考虑亦持续压抑板块估值,即使已届相当於预测2021年市帐率0.3至0.5倍的历史低位。不过,汇丰研究指,预测今年收益率达8%至13%,及AH股深度折让仍支持板块估值。
汇丰研究称,由於煤炭供应乏弹性,内地部分地区未来需求高峰期或间歇性面对停电。但中国以往结构上面对能源供应过剩。因此,该行料煤电企业难以透过年度、月度合约增加电价。另该行认为,火电企业碳排放标准仍然较宽松,对上市煤电企业影响有限,但长远而言或成为监管风险。
报告补充,偏好有参与可再生能源的企业,可降低对煤价及ESG的敏感度。现时港股可再生能源企业正享受估值重评,料华润电力(00836.HK)最终可受惠,因它是火电及风电混合企业,行业中仅予华润电力(00836.HK)「买入」评级。
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