業績預吿點燃整個板塊！這波行情還能持續多久？
儘管今日指數大跌，但豬肉股集體走高。截至今日收盤，天邦股份漲停，立華股份大漲12.47%，牧原股份大漲7.29%，新希望、正邦科技、唐人神等集體拉昇。
兩家頭部豬企今天公佈了2020年度業績預吿。
據公吿，有“豬中茅台”之稱的牧原股份預計2020年盈利270億元~290億元，同比增加341.58%~374.29%，扣非淨利潤預計達300億元~320億元。
根據上述數據估算，牧原股份在2020年平均每天大概能賣5萬頭豬，一頭豬的盈利超過1600元。
另一龍頭天邦股份的業績增速更是氣勢如虹。公吿顯示，公司預計2020年淨利潤為31.5億元~33億元，同比增長3037.37%~3186.77%；預計扣非淨利潤為31.5億元~33億元，同比增長101673.77%~106520.14%，即增幅超過1000倍。
天邦股份表示，公司業績大幅提升主要來自生豬養殖業務的貢獻。
從多家養豬企業已披露的2020業績預吿來看，業績翻倍增長已是主流。
上述企業均明確提及，利潤暴增主要是豬肉價格高位運行，且部分企業出欄量大幅增長。
養豬企業業績高增長還能持續多久？投資者現在還能“上車”嗎？
豬企業績高增長的動力來自豬價的高位運行。從2020年三季度開始，隨着生豬存欄數、出欄量的恢復和增加，豬肉價格出現了明顯的下跌，但這種下跌並沒有持續多久，從11月份開始又一次進入了上漲的通道。
有行業分析師認為，目前正處於豬肉消費的旺季，春節到來使得市場當中的豬肉需求量明顯提升。此外，進口冷凍肉的收緊、國內豬肉運輸成本增加等都是助推豬肉價格上漲的因素。
太平洋證券研報表示，隨着近期疫情防控加強，凍肉進口和銷售將繼續受限，生豬供給緊張格局沒有改觀，春節前豬價仍有望繼續反彈。節後，豬價或有所下行，但對2021年全年豬價持樂觀預期，預計全年均價25元/公斤。
中國銀河證券分析師謝芝優、白雪妍在研報中表示，當前生豬養殖行業處於下行大週期，成本控制在此階段將重新成為行業核心競爭力，完善的育種、育肥體系將優於外購仔豬/種豬模式。
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